Covid plots for family
April 07, 2020
Background
- This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included while be the day prior.
- The page is mostly organized by geography: It starts by showing data for all of the U.S., followed by our respective states, followed by our respective counties.
- Within each geophraphy, it shows several plots:
- Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
- New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
- Rolling 3-day case growth rate: This is the growth rate in total cases over the previous 3 days, shown on a rolling basis for each respective date. For instance, if it is 100%, then that means total cases are doubling every 3 days. (This isn’t shown at the county level because the sample size is too small.)
- Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported
- New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date
- Rolling 3-day death growth rate: This is the growth rate in total deaths over the previous 3 days, shown on a rolling basis for each respective date. For instance, if it is 100%, then that means total deaths are doubling every 3 days. (This isn’t shown at the county level because the sample size is too small.)
- Besides this data for each geography, it also includes some additional plots at the end:
- It shows tables of both total cases and deaths per million residents for all states, and then a graph of trends of these numbers for the top 10 states (only using 10 in the graph so it’s not too crowded). Showing the numbers per million helps normalize for the size of the states when looking at totals.
- It then shows these same tables and plots for cases and deaths, but with new cases/deaths per million residents instead of total cases/deaths per million. This section uses a rolling 3-day average of new cases/deaths.
- Finally, it shows the same rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, but broken out by states that have enacted stay-at-home orders and when the orders were enacted.
United States
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Washington
Confirmed cases
Deaths
California
Confirmed cases
Deaths
South Carolina
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Tennessee
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Pierce County, Washington
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Orange County, California
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Richland County, South Carolina
Confirmed cases
Deaths
York County, South Carolina
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Davidson County, Tennessee
Confirmed cases
Deaths
Compare state data based on population
Total confirmed cases
Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
## state casesPerMillion
## 1: New York 6,718
## 2: New Jersey 4,626
## 3: Louisiana 3,198
## 4: Massachusetts 2,007
## 5: Connecticut 1,937
## 6: Michigan 1,715
## 7: District of Columbia 1,554
## 8: Washington 1,101
## 9: Pennsylvania 1,021
## 10: Rhode Island 1,021
## 11: Illinois 967
## 12: Colorado 898
## 13: Vermont 870
## 14: Delaware 804
## 15: Indiana 736
## 16: Georgia 711
## 17: Maryland 669
## 18: Idaho 654
## 19: Nevada 639
## 20: Florida 634
## 21: Mississippi 583
## 22: Tennessee 549
## 23: New Hampshire 525
## 24: Utah 522
## 25: Missouri 443
## 26: South Carolina 433
## 27: Wisconsin 419
## 28: California 412
## 29: Alabama 409
## 30: Ohio 380
## 31: Maine 371
## 32: Wyoming 366
## 33: Arizona 338
## 34: Virginia 337
## 35: Oklahoma 335
## 36: New Mexico 327
## 37: South Dakota 325
## 38: Arkansas 307
## 39: Iowa 299
## 40: Montana 298
## 41: North Dakota 295
## 42: Kansas 292
## 43: Texas 279
## 44: North Carolina 273
## 45: Hawaii 271
## 46: Oregon 268
## 47: Alaska 258
## 48: Kentucky 236
## 49: Nebraska 226
## 50: West Virginia 192
## 51: Minnesota 174
## 52: Puerto Rico 160
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesPerMillion
New confirmed cases
Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state casesNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 1,430
## 2: New Jersey 1,260
## 3: Louisiana 983
## 4: Connecticut 558
## 5: Massachusetts 498
## 6: District of Columbia 481
## 7: Michigan 446
## 8: Pennsylvania 363
## 9: Rhode Island 350
## 10: Delaware 341
## 11: Illinois 264
## 12: Vermont 246
## 13: Indiana 225
## 14: Maryland 212
## 15: Washington 186
## 16: Colorado 171
## 17: Florida 156
## 18: Georgia 149
## 19: Nevada 137
## 20: Utah 129
## 21: New Hampshire 128
## 22: Mississippi 127
## 23: South Dakota 114
## 24: Tennessee 105
## 25: South Carolina 103
## 26: Virginia 101
## 27: Missouri 99
## 28: Ohio 97
## 29: Alabama 96
## 30: Arizona 95
## 31: California 94
## 32: New Mexico 91
## 33: Wisconsin 89
## 34: Idaho 87
## 35: Oklahoma 85
## 36: Texas 84
## 37: Wyoming 79
## 38: Iowa 78
## 39: Kansas 78
## 40: North Carolina 74
## 41: Nebraska 73
## 42: North Dakota 68
## 43: Kentucky 64
## 44: Arkansas 62
## 45: West Virginia 57
## 46: Oregon 55
## 47: Montana 53
## 48: Maine 49
## 49: Hawaii 48
## 50: Alaska 45
## 51: Puerto Rico 42
## 52: Minnesota 34
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesNewPerMillion
Total deaths
Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
## state deathsPerMillion
## 1: New York 244
## 2: New Jersey 113
## 3: Louisiana 110
## 4: Michigan 72
## 5: Connecticut 57
## 6: Washington 50
## 7: Massachusetts 37
## 8: Vermont 36
## 9: District of Columbia 34
## 10: Georgia 27
## 11: Colorado 26
## 12: Rhode Island 25
## 13: Illinois 24
## 14: Indiana 20
## 15: Nevada 18
## 16: Mississippi 17
## 17: Delaware 15
## 18: Maryland 15
## 19: Wisconsin 14
## 20: Pennsylvania 13
## 21: Ohio 12
## 22: Oklahoma 12
## 23: Florida 11
## 24: Kentucky 11
## 25: Alabama 10
## 26: Arizona 9
## 27: California 9
## 28: Missouri 9
## 29: South Carolina 9
## 30: Tennessee 9
## 31: Kansas 8
## 32: Idaho 7
## 33: Iowa 7
## 34: Maine 7
## 35: New Hampshire 6
## 36: Oregon 6
## 37: Puerto Rico 6
## 38: Virginia 6
## 39: Alaska 5
## 40: Arkansas 5
## 41: Minnesota 5
## 42: Montana 5
## 43: Nebraska 5
## 44: New Mexico 5
## 45: Texas 5
## 46: South Dakota 4
## 47: Utah 4
## 48: Hawaii 3
## 49: North Carolina 3
## 50: North Dakota 3
## 51: West Virginia 2
## 52: Wyoming 0
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsPerMillion
New deaths
Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state deathsNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 93
## 2: New Jersey 40
## 3: Louisiana 30
## 4: Michigan 24
## 5: Connecticut 20
## 6: District of Columbia 12
## 7: Rhode Island 12
## 8: Washington 11
## 9: Georgia 9
## 10: Massachusetts 9
## 11: Vermont 9
## 12: Maryland 8
## 13: Illinois 7
## 14: Mississippi 7
## 15: Colorado 6
## 16: Indiana 5
## 17: Pennsylvania 5
## 18: Wisconsin 5
## 19: Iowa 4
## 20: Kentucky 4
## 21: Missouri 4
## 22: Nevada 4
## 23: Ohio 4
## 24: Tennessee 4
## 25: Alabama 3
## 26: Arizona 3
## 27: Florida 3
## 28: Oklahoma 3
## 29: Alaska 2
## 30: California 2
## 31: Kansas 2
## 32: Nebraska 2
## 33: North Carolina 2
## 34: South Carolina 2
## 35: South Dakota 2
## 36: Texas 2
## 37: Arkansas 1
## 38: Delaware 1
## 39: Hawaii 1
## 40: Idaho 1
## 41: Minnesota 1
## 42: New Hampshire 1
## 43: Oregon 1
## 44: Puerto Rico 1
## 45: Utah 1
## 46: West Virginia 1
## 47: Maine 0
## 48: Montana 0
## 49: New Mexico 0
## 50: North Dakota 0
## 51: Virginia 0
## 52: Wyoming 0
## 53: Guam <NA>
## 54: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 55: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsNewPerMillion
Compare new cases based on stay-at-home orders
- The section is a work in progress – I’ll probably change and add plots over the coming days.
- I’m trying to see what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
- The current plot shows the rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger for the group with orders over time, as more states implement those orders).
- So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
- Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens a bit, but we’ll see. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
- The next plot I want to add will show rate of spread based on how long an order has been in effect, but still thinking about how to do this. Mostly, I’m trying to decide what the right baseline is to compare against.
